CONTEXT

When it comes to big life decisions (buying a house, deciding between job offers, settling down with a partner), many people struggle to commit… wondering “what if there’s something better out there?”

Then they wait too long, and regret not choosing an earlier option that (in hindsight) was better than the rest…

(I used to be so guilty of this).

Then I came across the 37% Rule.

I read it in Algorithms to Live By— a book by Brian Christian and Tom Griffiths.

They basically apply computer science to everyday human problems: (e.g., how many houses to look at before buying one, how many candidates to interview before extending an offer, and even how many people to date before settling down).

Yes, really. 😂

Here’s how the 3-step process works:

METHOD

Step 1.

Decide the maximum amount of time you want to spend on the decision.

(For example, “I need to hire someone within the next 6 months.”)

Step 2.

Explore the first 37% of your options.

Let’s say you have 10 great applicants?

Interview the first 4.

Familiarize yourself with who’s out there, and set a benchmark of who was the “best” so far.

Step 3.

Keep searching. But be ready to immediately commit to the next one that is better than the first 37%.

Let’s say the 6th person you interview was better than the first 4 candidates? Extend the offer.

No need to keep interviewing the others.

WHY IT WORKS

Your time is a scarce resource. And if you interview EVERY candidate before extending an offer to #6, that person might have already accepted another job…

“Optimal stopping” = the point at which the cost of continuing to explore (e.g. losing #6) is greater than the chance of something better being out there.

Remember: this is all about maximizing probabilities.

Yes, it is possible that #1 was the best person. It’s also possible that #10 would’ve been even better than #6.

But if we’re JUST maximizing probabilities (and minimizing the time you spend), there is the highest likelihood that the best choice will be after the first 37% of options.

CLOSING THOUGHTS

The most important part of this? Trust the process.

The more you calibrate your expectations in the “explore” period, the more confident you’ll feel in committing to the next option that’s better (without seeing the other choices).

That is how you escape FOMO.

TL;DR:

1. Decide the maximum time you’re willing to spend on the decision.

2. Explore the first 37% of options to get a benchmark of what’s out there.

3. Commit to the next option that is better than the 37% you’ve seen.

Don’t keep exploring forever. (You’ll miss out on the best choice because you didn’t act fast enough).

Try it out. Let me know how it goes.

(If you liked this, check out the whole book. It’s great.)

Until next week,

Jade

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